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1. The scale of beef cattle began to deepen

With the change of modern diet concept, beef has become a representative of healthy consumption. After the addition of African swine fever in 2018, the price of pork has soared and beef has seized some market share. The beef cattle industry has entered a period of expansion, and breeding has become increasingly large-scale. According to Brick's data, in the past three years, the scale of beef cattle breeding farms has shown a clear trend of "two small heads and large middle ones". In the past three years, the average annual decline rate of free-range farmers with an annual output of less than 9 heads exceeded 6%. Although the number of beef cattle farms with an annual output of 10-49 heads increased slightly, most of them were mergers of free-range farmers or smaller farms. After the formation, there is no major expansion in itself. The average annual increase in the number of medium-sized farms in the past three years is close to 10%. Although the number of large-scale farms has also increased, the average annual growth rate in the past three years has been around 3%-5%, which is less than the expansion rate of medium-sized farms. The scale of the beef cattle industry has begun to deepen. Small-scale farms are being eliminated, medium-sized farms are expanding rapidly, and large-scale farms are developing, but limited by industry development restrictions, the development speed is relatively slow, and there may be further development in the next 5-10 years. development possible.

2. Comparison of the scale of beef cattle with other mature domestic animal husbandry industries

The more mature domestic livestock and poultry industries are pigs and broilers. In terms of live pigs, the leading pig enterprises are frequent. In 2021, Muyuan, Wenshi, Zhengbang, Twins, and New Hope will produce a total of 90 million pigs, accounting for 17% of the total number of pigs in the whole year. In terms of broilers, a number of leading companies have emerged in the industry. In terms of white-feather broiler, Shengnong, Yisheng, Minhe and Xiantan stand as four pillars. In 2021, Chunxue Foods will be listed, becoming the fifth listed white-feather broiler-related company. In terms of yellow feather broilers, Wen's leads the industry, followed by Xiangjia and Lihua. In 2020, my country's top five broiler chicken slaughtering companies will have a total of 2.852 billion slaughtered chickens.

From the perspective of cost-benefit ratio, the higher the industrial concentration and scale, the higher the rate of return. In terms of live pigs, the return rate of large-scale farming in 2020 is about 8% higher than that of small-scale farming; for broilers, when small-scale farming suffers losses, large-scale farming can still maintain a 20% rate of return.

But at the same time, the scale of the beef cattle industry is indescribable. Enterprises such as Horqin, Haoyue, and Qinbao Animal Husbandry are still in the development stage, and there is still a distance from the leading enterprises in the industry. At present, the operating data of relevant companies that have been listed and listed on the New Third Board have not performed well, and the real brand leader has not yet appeared. The cost-benefit standard of domestic statistical beef cattle is still based on the free-range standard, and a large-scale classification has not yet been formed.

3. Take advantage of the policy and industry "east wind" to speed up the large-scale transformation of the industry

From the perspective of beef cattle industry policy, according to the "14th Five-Year Plan for National Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Industry Development Plan" issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2021, by 2025, the industrial structure and regional layout will be further optimized, and the comprehensive production capacity and supply guarantee capacity of animal husbandry will be further optimized. Greatly improved. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, in terms of beef cattle, it will focus on achieving the goal of building an output value of 100 billion yuan, and the output value of the beef cattle breeding industry will reach 900 billion yuan. The industrial policy mainly focuses on the transition to subsidized production, involving the improvement of beef cattle breeding, the upgrading of large-scale breeding, the increase in the stock of female animals, and the utilization of non-grain feed resources.

After 2022, major key provinces such as Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other regions will begin to promote the development of the beef cattle industry, actively expand the scale of beef cattle production, accelerate the construction of a number of large-scale farms, and promote the development of the entire industry chain of large-scale beef cattle breeding. Some provinces even provide financing support for beef cattle breeding enterprises, support the issuance of special bonds for the construction of standardized cattle sheds, and implement support policies for large-scale farmers.

In 2021, the shortage of beef consumption will be as high as 3 million tons. Under the current market situation where the demand is far greater than the supply, the beef cattle industry will force the industry to transform, implement the standardization and large-scale construction of the beef cattle industry, support large-scale farms to carry out the standardization transformation of infrastructure, and improve the beef cattle industry. The comprehensive production capacity will promote the improvement of labor productivity and the increase of breeding efficiency in the industry. At the same time, the scale advantage brought by large-scale production can not only improve the cost-benefit ratio, but also integrate industrial resources, boost the vitality of the industry, promote the development of the technical system of the beef cattle industry, and shorten the gap between domestic and foreign countries.

However, due to the long cycle of cattle breeding and fattening, the uncertainty of the epidemic situation and the risk factors of the external market, the domestic beef cattle industry must pay attention to industry risks and avoid excessive deployment while developing large-scale development and realizing large-scale benefits.

1. The situation of beef cattle breeding in the United States

U.S. beef production has been maintained at a high level and is the world's largest beef producer. Data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization shows that in 2020, the number of beef cattle in the United States will be 93.793 million, and the output of beef will be 12.357 million tons. The overall change in the number of beef cattle and beef production in the United States is not large. The average growth rate of beef cattle inventory from 2016 to 2020 is 1.03%, and the average beef production is The growth rate was 2.8%. U.S. beef cattle have a very high level of yield per unit, mainly due to their great advantages in terms of breed, feeding method, slaughter time, and technological level.

The production system of the modern beef cattle industry in the United States is complete, with professional division of labor in different links such as breeding cattle farms, cow breeding farms with calves, Jiazi cattle breeding farms, fattening farms, slaughterhouses and sales. Integration with packaging and retail has formed a stable production alliance. Among them, the breeding cattle farms select and breed cattle to ensure the quality of beef from the source. The breeding cattle farms in the United States are different from the group selection and artificial insemination of Chinese breeding cattle. Instead, each breed is screened layer by layer to select the most suitable for the local area. Breeding cattle in the natural environment are used for breeding, while cross-breeding is often used in cow breeding farms. The layout of the beef cattle industry in the United States is closely integrated with the planting of pastures, corn and soybeans. The climate around the Great Lakes in the northeast is humid and cold, which is suitable for the growth of succulent pastures. There are also many grasslands in the west, which are rich in forage resources. Recently, the average closing price of the main U.S. corn contract in 2021 was 568.61 cents per bushel, equivalent to $224 per ton, and the average closing price of the main soybean contract was 1351.88 cents per bushel, equivalent to $532 per ton, while the main corn contract in China in 2021. The average closing price is 2664.34 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 411 US dollars/ton. The average closing price of China's main soybean contract is 5910.68 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to about 912 US dollars/ton. In comparison, the feed price in the United States is low. Due to the low price of grain feed raw materials in the United States and the widespread use of grain-fed beef cattle in the United States, the quality of American beef is excellent, and the United States has a high degree of agricultural mechanization and low production costs.

In addition, the American Beef Cattle Association and the Meat Export Association play a very important role in the whole process of beef production and sales in the United States. The Beef Cattle Association undertakes many responsibilities such as the coordination of most domestic beef cattle production, technology research and development and guidance, and government policy coordination. The association focuses on market export sales of beef products.

90% of beef produced in the United States is used for domestic consumption. The import and export volume of beef is generally balanced, and the import and export volume is not small. The main reason for the large import and export of beef in the United States is that while the United States exports high-grade grain-fed beef to Japan, South Korea and other countries, it imports a large amount of low-priced grass-fed beef from Canada, Australia, Mexico and other countries to meet domestic burgers, sandwiches, barbecues, etc. Low-end beef consumption demand. At the end of 2003, after the case of mad cow disease was discovered in the United States, many countries around the world imposed bans on American beef, including China. In 2004, the export of American beef dropped sharply, and then slowly recovered. After 2010, the export of American beef basically recovered to the level before 2003. U.S. beef imports generally fluctuate around 1 million tons.

According to USDA data, U.S. beef exports in 2021 will be 1.56 million tons, and U.S. beef will return to the Chinese market in 2017. China’s growing demand for beef consumption has gradually made China an important export market for U.S. beef. Currently, about 24 percent of U.S. beef exports are % went to Japan, about 23% went to South Korea, and about 19% went to China. The main source countries of U.S. beef imports are Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, Australia, and Brazil. U.S. beef imports from these countries accounted for 86.7% of the total imports.

2. Canadian beef cattle breeding

The Canadian beef cattle industry is relatively developed. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the number of beef cattle in Canada in 2020 will be 11.265 million heads and the output of beef will be 1.382 million tons. 0.65%, and the average growth rate of beef production is 6.42%.

Similar to the United States, Canadian beef cattle production also includes breeding cattle farms, calving heifer farms, rack/pre-feed cattle farms, and pen feeder farms. Canadian breeding cattle farms account for about 5-10% of the breeding farms, raising purebred cows and bulls. The breeding of purebred cows is mainly artificial insemination; calving cow farms are similar to those in China, mainly small family farms , the breeding scale varies from 40 to 100 heads, but there are also large-scale commercial calving cow farms with a scale of 100 to 500 heads; the Jiazizi cattle farm is similar to the grassland area in China, with high quality forage, mostly grazing, due to More and more calfing cow farms are directly raised to a suitable fattening weight, and the number of cattle farms in Canada continues to decrease; the fenced fattening farms are generally fattened for 3-6 months, with 2-3 batches of cattle per year, and 3-8 batches of beef cattle per year. Ten thousand.

The import volume of Canadian beef continued to decline from 2000 to 2004. In 2004, the import of beef fell to a historical level due to the impact of mad cow disease in the United States. Since 2005, the import of beef continued to rebound to 2012 and then declined again, but the decline was not significant. In terms of exports, the export volume of Canadian beef has remained at 350,000-400,000 tons in recent years. In 2021, about 69% of Canadian beef will be exported to the United States. The United States is still Canada's largest export market, but the export ratio has decreased from 72.8% in 2020. Canada's beef exports to Mexico and the Asian market increased significantly.